EA - US public opinion of AI policy and risk by Jamie Elsey

Link to original articleWelcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: US public opinion of AI policy and risk, published by Jamie Elsey on May 12, 2023 on The Effective Altruism Forum.SummaryOn April 21st 2023, Rethink Priorities conducted an online poll to assess US public perceptions of, and opinions about, AI risk. The poll was intended to conceptually replicate and extend a recent AI-related poll from YouGov, as well as drawing inspiration from some other recent AI polls from Monmouth University and Harris-MITRE.The poll covered opinions regarding:A pause on certain kinds of AI researchShould AI be regulated (akin to the FDA)?Worry about negative effects of AIExtinction risk in 10 and 50 yearsLikelihood of achieving greater than human level intelligencePerceived most likely existential threatsExpected harm vs. good from AIOur population estimates reflect the responses of 2444 US adults, poststratified to be representative of the US population. See the Methodology section of the Appendix for more information on sampling and estimation procedures.Key findingsFor each key finding below, more granular response categories are presented in the main text, along with demographic breakdowns of interest.Pause on AI Research. Support for a pause on AI research outstrips opposition. We estimate that 51% of the population would support, 25% would oppose, 20% remain neutral, and 4% don’t know (compared to 58-61% support and 19-23% opposition across different framings in YouGov’s polls). Hence, support is robust across different framings and surveys. The slightly lower level of support in our survey may be explained by our somewhat more neutral framing.Should AI be regulated (akin to the FDA)? Many more people think AI should be regulated than think it should not be. We estimate that 70% believe Yes, 21% believe No, and 9% don’t know.Worry about negative effects of AI. Worry in everyday life about the negative effects of AI appears to be quite low. We estimate 72% of US adults worry little or not at all about AI, 21% report a fair amount of worry, and less than 10% worry a lot or more.Extinction risk in 10 and 50 years. Expectation of extinction from AI is relatively low in the next 10 years but increases in the 50 year time horizon. We estimate 9% think AI-caused extinction to be moderately likely or more in the next 10 years, and 22% think this in the next 50 years.Likelihood of achieving greater than human level intelligence. Most people think AI will ultimately become more intelligent than people. We estimate 67% think this moderately likely or more, 40% highly likely or more, and only 15% think it is not at all likely.Perceived most likely existential threats. AI ranks low among other perceived existential threats to humanity. AI ranked below all 4 other specific existential threats we asked about, with an estimated 4% thinking it the most likely cause of human extinction. For reference, the most likely cause, nuclear war, is estimated to be selected by 42% of people. The other least likely cause - a pandemic - is expected to be picked by 8% of the population.Expected harm vs. good from AI. Despite perceived risks, people tend to anticipate more benefits than harms from AI. We estimate that 48% expect more good than harm, 31% more harm than good, 19% expecting an even balance, and 2% reporting no opinion.The estimates from this poll may inform policy making and advocacy efforts regarding AI risk mitigation. The findings suggest an attitude of caution from the public, with substantially greater support than opposition to measures that are intended to curb the evolution of certain types of AI, as well as for regulation of AI. However, concerns over AI do not yet appear to feature especially prominently in public perception of the existential risk landscape: people report worrying about it only a little, and rarely picked i...