HEADLINE: Russian Economic Crisis Driven by Budget Strain and Oil Market Competition GUEST NAME: Michael Bernstam SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Michael Bernstam about Russia's deteriorating econ

HEADLINE: Russian Economic Crisis Driven by Budget Strain and Oil Market Competition GUEST NAME: Michael Bernstam SUMMARY: John Batchelor speaks with Michael Bernstam about Russia's deteriorating economy and budget crisis. After three years of "military Keynesianism" driving manufacturing expansion, the labor force is exhausted and the government faces severe financial constraints. The new budget forecasts declining capital investment for the first time in decades, with military spending dropping 5.8% nominally. Russia increased profit taxes from 20% to 25% and is raising the value-added tax. Oil revenues, providing one-third of budget income, are declining due to global competition. With production costs of $42-44 per barrel plus required $15 discounts, Russia cannot compete effectively. The US shale revolution, producing 14 million barrels daily, drives OPEC's market share fight. OPEC's October 5 meeting will determine November quotas, with increases of at least 137,000 barrels per day expected, accelerating price declines. Taiwan purchases NAFTA, a refined oil product essential for semiconductors, from Russia at $70-80 per barrel, but only due to discounts. Bernstam concludes that capitalism, markets, and technological revolution—not military action—will ultimately challenge Russia, as US technological progress has added 8 million barrels of oil daily since 2004.