”Investing During a Saw Tooth Pandemic Recovery” David Roche, Independent Strategy

David Osman of the IRF Podcast is joined by David Roche, President and Global Strategist of Independent Strategy, to discuss ‘investing during a saw tooth pandemic recovery’.  Independent Strategy is a macro research company focused on long and short term investment, which is unafraid to challenge conventional wisdom. ----more---- David explains that a normal cyclical recovery post pandemic is impossible. The saw tooth recovery pattern is one where there is a huge boom once the sector is unlocked, followed by decline towards a trend growth rate. The timing and extent of the boom is largely dependent on the sector, with manufacturing first showing the largest boom and now the service sector will likely replace it. In light of this, granular investment selection is very important: specific sectors, countries and stocks. David believes the increased inflation which has been witnessed recently will continue. The pandemic has shifted from a libertarian market philosophy to a state intervention. Higher levels of debt, bigger budget deficits and greater role of the state are expected. David mentions the correlation between higher growth rates and stronger currencies, and expands on his view that government bonds are an unattractive investment proposition.