The week in markets: it all depends on the Fed

In this podcast, Julius Baer head of research Asia Mark Matthews discusses the decline in the oil price and its impact on inflation, and how if current market prices were used in the official inflation measure, core inflation would be at around 3%. They are sure to show up in due time. Whether the US avoids a recession or not depends in large part on the Fed. We think it can avoid one if the rate hike on Wednesday is the last in this cycle, which happens to be our view. Consolidation in the S&P after the 14% gain in the 6 weeks leading up to December is not surprising, and even welcome. We think it will be over by Christmas, then the market can rally into year-end, and the beginning of next year.