The Week in Markets

It can’t be the end of the world when the NASDAQ is up 12% so far this year. The Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlooks Survey at -23.2 and the University of Michigan’s Inflation Expectations Index at 3.8% both indicate it’s an appropriate time for the Fed to go on hold. European bank shares are up 3% this year, but American bank shares are down 15% over the same period. Unlike Credit Suisse, the run on deposits at Silicon Valley Bank was a bolt from the blue. Efforts to stop the nervousness have been unsuccessful, and now the Federal government, and apparently some of the small and medium sized banks, are talking to Warren Buffett. Eventually, people will run out of nervousness, and realize that both inflation and rates have almost certainly peaked.