“Rethink Priorities’ Portfolio Builder Tool” by arvomm, Derek Shiller, Hayley Clatterbuck, Bob Fischer

Link to the tool: https://portfolio.rethinkpriorities.org 2-min Introductory Video: 5-min Tool Features Walkthrough Video: Executive Summary This post introduces Rethink Priorities’ Portfolio Builder Tool. This interactive tool is designed to help individuals and organizations optimize their philanthropic giving portfolios by evaluating the cost-effectiveness of different cause areas. It leverages empirical estimates, simplified cost curves, and tailored decision-theoretic assumptions to help users explore optimal portfolio compositions. The Portfolio Builder Tool has two primary functions: (1) finding the optimal portfolio based on user-defined parameters, and (2) assessing the value of a specified portfolio under different decision procedures. The tool integrates cost-effectiveness analysis with decision-making models like Expected Value (EV), Difference-Making Risk Averse Expected Utility (DMREU), Weighted-Linear Utility Theory (WLU), and Tails-Excluded EV, enabling philanthropists to explore the impact of various combinations of empirical assumptions and risk attitudes. If the user is uncertain about decision procedures, the tool offers a [...] ---Outline:(00:25) Executive Summary(02:33) Intro(06:53) Key Components(07:05) A. Cost-Effectiveness Curves(08:53) B. Probability Distributions(13:38) C. Decision Theories(16:19) Outputs(16:23) Optimal Proposed Portfolio(17:07) Alternative Decision Theory Scores(18:34) Aggregating Across Decision-Theories(19:06) Example of a pattern we noticed(19:28) Existential Risk Mitigation fares well under EV maximization(21:14) Risk aversion favors Global Health and Animal Welfare(21:58) Empirical uncertainty about cost-effectiveness matters(22:28) Two strategies for improving individual funding decisions(23:32) Getting Started(24:04) AcknowledgmentsThe original text contained 7 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. The original text contained 6 images which were described by AI. --- First published: July 10th, 2024 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ah3QKqYjJAeZ7MbHA/rethink-priorities-portfolio-builder-tool --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.