“Policy advocacy against salmon stocking in Canada does not seem worth it” by Thijs Jacobs

TL;DR: During a research stint at AIM the idea of a policy charity advocating for a ban or limitation of fish stocking in Canada was evaluated. Fish stocking is the practice of releasing cultured fish into natural water bodies to maintain or enhance fish populations. The idea was dropped as the probability of policy success was estimated to be merely 5% and the uncertainty is large, including doing harm with the intervention. These major uncertainties concerned key factors like fish suffering levels, re-catch rates of the stocked fish, and effects on wild populations, making it too risky to pursue despite promising average cost-effectiveness estimates. Epistemic statusAfter researching this idea for about 100 hours, I am fairly certain that it is not worthwhile to pursue advocacy efforts against Salmon stocking in Canada. Do note that this is dependent on a bunch of subjective judgements, and one's risk appetite. [...] ---Outline:(02:55) Executive summary(08:33) 1     Background(08:37) 1.1        Introduction to fish stocking(11:38) 1.2        Fish welfare concerns(15:10) 1.3        Substitution effect(17:12) 1.4        Wild animal welfare(18:57) 1.5        Ecological concerns(21:08) 1.6        Economic viability of fish stocking(21:45) 2     Theories of change(22:16) 2.1   Assumptions(24:01) 3     Geographic assessment(24:05) 3.1        Where existing organizations work(25:16) 3.2        Geographic assessment(29:04) 4   Quality of evidence(29:08) 4.1   Evidence that a charity can effect change in this space(33:06) 4.2   Evidence that the change has the expected welfare effects(33:33) 5     Cost-effectiveness analysis(35:53) 5.1   Costs(36:55) 5.2   Effects(44:05) Appendix 1 - Interview with Canadian civil servant from the relevant ministry(47:50) Reference listThe original text contained 42 footnotes which were omitted from this narration. The original text contained 2 images which were described by AI. --- First published: February 14th, 2025 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aHmX7MMiXGzmrQNPd/policy-advocacy-against-salmon-stocking-in-canada-does-not --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO. ---Images from the article:Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.