“Cost-effectiveness of epidemic/pandemic preparedness” by Vasco Grilo

Summary Summary . I Fermi estimate the cost-effectiveness of epidemic/pandemic preparedness is 0.00236 DALY/$. Relative to the above, I calculate GiveWell's top charities are 4.12 times as cost-effective, and corporate campaigns for chicken welfare, such as the ones supported by The Humane League (THL), 6.35 k times. Calculations My calculations are in this Sheet. I Fermi estimate the cost-effectiveness of epidemic/pandemic preparedness of 0.00236 DALY/$ multiplying: The expected annual epidemic/pandemic disease burden of 68.2 MDALY. I obtained this from the product between: The expected annual epidemic/pandemic deaths of 1.61 M, which I determined multiplying: The epidemic/pandemic deaths per human-year from 1500 to 2023 of 1.98*10^-4, which is the ratio between 160 M epidemic/pandemic deaths, and 808 G human-years from Marani et. al 2021[1]. The population predicted for 2024 of 8.12 G. The disease burden per death in 2021 of 42.4 DALY. The relative reduction of the expected annual epidemic/pandemic disease burden [...] ---Outline:(00:05) Summary(00:33) CalculationsThe original text contained 1 footnote which was omitted from this narration. --- First published: June 30th, 2024 Source: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/6bxrHMYh6KewqPNaD/cost-effectiveness-of-epidemic-pandemic-preparedness --- Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.